Month: December 2021

As we say goodbye to 2021 and welcome in a new year, I hope this post finds you and your family enjoying your holidays and planning great new things for 2022! My January newsletter will be filled with thoughts about buy, sell, and hold. If you’re not a subscriber, be sure and email me to get your name on the list! Since the 2021 Los Alamos County Real Estate report came out this past November, I thought I might share with you some interesting facts.

How Many Homes Sell Each Month?

This is an interesting statistic, especially here in Los Alamos County. In fact, it’s a bit like a chicken and the egg question. Look at the graphic below and see what it can tell you about about how many homes sell each month in Los Alamos.

The first thing you’ll notice is that the peak month for home sales is in August. Not a surprise really. Seasonal fluctuations are highly common in real estate markets. But don’t you find it interesting that for the last three years the highest number of homes sold has been the same? November is always shown in red because that’s when the cycle begins again, but realistically, the trends are very similar each year.

How Many Days Does it Take to Sell a Home?

This is a question that has a lot of different parts. After all, the offer is only a tiny piece of the sale puzzle. When we say that we’re experiencing a seller’s market, it certainly means what you think it does. But it also means that seller’s can spend a little time choosing just the right offer. That can affect the number of days a home spends on the MLS.

How Much Are Homes Selling For These Days Anyway?

The answer to this question probably isn’t what you think. Truthfully, average home prices have been consistently rising right along with inflation. We’re certainly seeing homes that wouldn’t have been nearly as popular several years ago become more so, but this is happening all over the US right now.

What has happened is that the number we used to consider really high ~ $500K ~ is no longer as high as it once was. So when we look at this ~

We aren’t nearly as shocked to see that in 2021, 118 homes sold for over $500K. After all, inflation paired with demand is a recipe for this sort of increase. Perhaps the year that should be considered an outlier based on this information is 2006. Of course, without the numbers for a handful of years prior to 2006 there’s not a way to see what the trend really was at that time. But it is sufficient information for us to infer that these fluctuations are not all that unusual. Perhaps what gets us is the idea of such a large sum of money. After all, if someone tells you that they remember paying under a dollar for gasoline, you feel wishful for those days of cheaper gas prices. However, you’re not likely to believe someone is telling you a whopper if they say they paid more than $7.00 a gallon for gas in California.

As I mentioned in my last post, perception is everything when it comes to looking at the real estate market. I hope you’ll look at the information I’ve given you and feel encouraged. Of course, it’s never wonderful to feel as though things are getting more expensive. However, when it comes to homes, continuing low interest rates are a huge part of what makes people able to pay a little more for what they want. And when YOU want to talk real estate, give me a call! I’m your local real estate expert!

As 2021 comes to a close, it’s always fun and exciting to look back over the year and see how things have changed in and around Los Alamos. This year we’ve seen the completion of our new roundabout, more new construction in White Rock’s Mirador subdivision, and even the demolition of the old McDonald’s building. Starbucks is proceeding with their brand new building and there are plans to see a second location of Pig & Fig here in Los Alamos. (but more about that in a future post!)

When I say PERCEPTIONS of 2021, what I’m speaking about are the things that we think we know. And when it comes to the real estate market here in Los Alamos, 2021 has been yet another year where perception is everything.

What determines the value of a home?

Of course the value of a home can be determined by many concrete things like comparable sales in the neighborhood, appraisals, and of course the amenities a home has to offer any potential buyers.

What determines the status of the market?

We sometimes refer to a market as a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market. These designations are defined by plenty of data. There are statistics regarding number of homes on market, average selling price, average number of offers, averages on the number of days on market… The list of data sets can feel enormous! But how do those numbers stack up against perception?

What part does perception play in market status and home values?

The answer? Perception is huge! Public perception. The perception of the brokers and agents working in the market. Perceptions about economics both locally and nationally. No matter where you’re home shopping, perception is a big part of your experience. But here in Los Alamos, perception plays another unique role in defining how we view buying and selling real estate in Los Alamos County.

In the beginning, when Los Alamos was a jumbled collection of government owned housing units populated by employees of the National Laboratory, it was a firmly held belief that this is a company town. Even when employees both LANL (then LASL) and the Zia Company began to clamor for privately owned housing it was difficult to convince mortgage and insurance companies that Los Alamos would ever be able to stand on its own as a town.

Many current residents of Los Alamos still believe deep down that this is true. You’ll hear statements like, “The Lab is hiring! Our property values are going to go up!” Or, you might hear something like, “The mandatory vaccination policy has caused lots of people to walk off the job. The housing crisis up here will probably ease up now.”

These are perceptions. They aren’t facts. And here’s something really interesting I noticed during the last half of 2021: Those perceptions are not really all that accurate. During my last newsletter in October, I mentioned that there was a feeling around the office of the market shifting. Though the statistics didn’t necessarily support our perceptions just yet, I suggested that the brokers around town felt that there was an easing up that could mean more houses available for sale.

As I look back, I’ve begun to realize that this was nearly all perception! There had been quite a lot of news around town and nationally about vaccine mandates and potential job vacancies up at LANL that would end with folks moving out of the area. This caused us real estate professionals to perceive that the market was going to suddenly be flooded with homes for sale because in the past, this has very often been the case. This time, it was what was happening all over our country!

But it didn’t have the same impact on the Los Alamos real estate market this time. Not really. Did we see some effects? Sure. Very small ones though. Perhaps there were only two offers on a home instead of five or six. The number of homes on the market a few weeks ago was twelve, which is more than the usual average. But at the end of the day, here are a few things that I learned:

Trust the statistics more than the perception. Right now real estate markets all over the United States are reflecting the same thing. Americans want to buy their own home. The number of homes available just isn’t comparable to the surge in the number of buyers. Period. It doesn’t matter if you’re in Los Alamos or Germantown, Tennessee.

Los Alamos is a town in its own right. It’s time to shed the 1940’s perceptions behind us. Yes. Housing here in Los Alamos is always going to be unique. That’s part of our history. But all housing crises do not belong solely to our population. They’re everywhere now. We should be focusing on enjoying our town, bringing in and supporting new businesses, and utilizing the amazing activities and amenities our town has to offer.

So get involved this holiday season! Shop small. Take a walk beneath the twinkling lights around the pond. Gather with friends and family and relax. The year AFTER Covid is coming to a close. Things aren’t the same, but maybe that’s all part of moving forward. And when you’re ready to join or leave our unique community, give me a call! I’m your home town real estate expert!