Gotta be honest, when I hear those two terms thrown around, “Buyers’ Market” or “Sellers’ Market”, I just want to cringe. If you Google these concepts, the AI responses lead you to believe it’s obvious.
According to Google:
A buyer’s market is when there are more homes available than buyers, while a seller’s market is when there are more buyers than homes. In a buyer’s market, buyers have more leverage and can negotiate with sellers. In a seller’s market, sellers have more leverage and buyers may have to compete in bidding wars.
So a simplistic way to view this concept is:
Gosh, the situations above certainly seem familiar to many of us here in Los Alamos. But have those things actually changed? Sure. We had more homes on the market in November and December of 2024 than we had since pre quarantine, but somewhere in the neighborhood of two months on market isn’t actually a long time for a house to remain available for sale. It just seems a lot longer than the seven days we’ve been looking at for the last several years.
Again. This is as very simplistic way to look at these concepts. Almost every mortgage or real estate related organization has plenty to say about both, but I think if you’re trying to understand if you potentially “missed your chance to get a great price on a home” either because you have one to sell or are interested in purchasing, it’s important to look at a variety of opinions about what these concepts actually mean in a unique place like Los Alamos.
Rocket Mortgage suggests: “A buyer’s market occurs when supply exceeds demand. To put it another way, real estate inventory is high, and there are plenty of homes for sale, but there’s a shortage of interested home buyers. These conditions give buyers leverage over sellers because when supply is higher and demand lower, the market is forced to respond.”
It seems the key words in the paragraph above are “but there’s a shortage of interested home buyers”. That isn’t actually what’s happening here in Los Alamos. There are certainly some regions of the US experiencing a lack of interested buyers, but that’s not what the volume of phone calls coming into my office suggests at the moment. There ARE interested buyers. They’re just having to be pretty darned careful what they spend their limited budgets on.
There was a lot of talk at the end of 2024 regarding what might have felt like a “drastic” increase in the number of homes on the market. However, here we are mid January and that number is down at least 25% or more. There’ve even been some higher priced homes going under contract with more than one competitive offer on the table, which is actually a great sign of a healthy local market.
Assurance Mortgage talks in their blog post about how you can tell if a market is leaning in the seller’s market direction. They speak about the pricing of a market being an indicator of buyers’ vs sellers’ market, which is certainly something we in Los Alamos keep a close eye on for many, many reasons.
Home prices here in Los Alamos are driven by some pretty unique factors. Laboratory hiring has decreased somewhat in the last several months. The 2024-2025 year change was also a significant contract year for some of the LANL contractors which may have affected our perceptions of the housing market. But at this stage, it would probably be more accurate to suggest (not confirm or deny) that housing prices are just now starting to stabilize a bit. And these things are a good thing overall for our community!
LANL potentially slowing down their hiring doesn’t mean that there aren’t any “new” residents looking to purchase a home. It just means that some of the folks who moved into town for one reason or another in the last 4-5 yrs and needed to put off their home purchase, now have an opportunity to find their dream home in Los Alamos!
When it comes to the prices of homes here in Los Alamos, remember that in 2024, 35% of homes here in town sold for over $700K. While this is actually quite similar to other comparable home values nationwide, I think it’s important to keep in mind that the market isn’t suggesting homes are going to suddenly see a massive drop in value as we’ve experienced in certain past years due to LANL operations or other major local and national economic situations.
Buyers simply aren’t willing to spend top dollar for a home that needs another $50K-200K in renovations. I think you might agree with me that this is entirely reasonable. But if you were a seller and your broker was suggesting you need to put about $50K-$200K in improvements into your home in order to get top dollar, you might view that situation very differently.
Part of the wariness of a new homeowner regarding potential need for renovation is the difficulty in finding a contractor to do the work! We actually have far more local general contractors than you might think, but they are SO busy that they can be super picky about the jobs they agree to. Many of those same contractors have been in business for so many years here in Los Alamos that they’re being called in to renovate work they did sometime in the last several decades. AND, they’ve done so many renovations on our “Group Housing” (quads, duplexes, eastern and western area homes, etc.) that they’ve gotten very savvy at knowing which potential projects are likely to blow up in their faces. It’s not easy to accommodate the seller, the buyer, and whatever contractor gets caught in the middle!
But none of these issues are unique to Los Alamos! In places like Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Arkansas, many of the homes date back to the forties, fifties, sixties, and even to the turn of the century! Contractors in those regions are just as savvy regarding what renovation jobs they’re willing to take. In other areas, (the suburbs of Dallas come to mind), acres upon acres of tract housing all built in the last 30 years have been the standard for so long, folks can’t imagine not having a fairly new home with standard fixtures and up to code “modern” electric and plumbing.
I hope whether you’re a buyer or a seller, this information has helped in some small way. The good news is, homes are selling. The better news is that there are actually homes in Los Alamos to sell! Since both of those things are true, I’m still loving life here in Los Alamos while getting to take a peek into all of the cool and unique homes we have in town. And when you’re ready to sell your home here in Los Alamos, give me a call! I’m a hometown girl who loves to chat about housing on the Pajarito Plateau and I’d love to share my knowledge with you!
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